My internet has been down all morning and I have been reduced to checking markets and making trades via mobile devices. Either way, there has been some very good action in my portfolio this morning. I sold MNST a little after the open when it was up. I could have gotten another 2% if I held out but I sold into the rally anyways. I also added to my CTRX position at 52.32. This name along with CHKP will be down 8 in a row if they close down today, which they currently are. They both still have great long term uptrends that are intact and I think this is a great place to add in here.
My largest position AAPL is going HAM today, upgraded from bologna. I have been waiting for this move for the last week or two. I am now up over 1% when averaging my last 3 buys. Don't forget that I bought even more at 419. Currently it is trading around 444. After the gap up to 440 this morning I predicted that it would probably not pin here on quad witching day. It seemed to easy of a trade as it traded within 1 or 2 dollars for the first 3 hours since market open. Normally, the trend on AAPL that I have noticed is that it gets crushed on Fridays.
Philip Elmer-DeWitt, a writer for Fortune magazine actually wrote an article a couple of years ago about the max pain trade in AAPL. After reading that years ago I would always watch on Fridays how AAPL would react, and usually it wasn't very well. As long as I am making no trades on it that day I like to take stabs at where I think it will go. Usually I ask a couple of people where it will pin and then I will add another $5 either higher or lower than what they thought. And usually it is right. The max pain trade on AAPL today in my opinion is to the upside. Too many people have been leaning short against this name and are forcing to cover. It is very unlikely but I honestly wouldn't be surprised if it broke out and got near 450 near the close. That's only about 1.5% away from here. As long as it stays above 440 we should see some bullish trading next week. It has finally closed above all MAs on the 30 min chart which indicates short term momentum to the upside. We will see if this dark pool of sellers gets dried up or continues to weigh down the stock.
As long as it trades sideways and forms a base I do not care. It's the whole going down thing that I don't like. I got time to sit around on this one. They are a great company with loyal fans and an ecosystem that can be matched by no one. The question you have to ask yourself is: "Do I really think AAPL will be down on the year?". If your answer is no, then you should be buying this right now. If your answer is yes, then you should be buying this right now.
Disclosure: Long AAPL, CHKP, CTRX